I know you don’t come here for politics but this isn’t necessarily political.
The news people know this, or should, but we don’t have national elections for president. We have 50 individual state elections, and each state gets to decide their rules for it. So why do they take national polls? It’s irrelevant.
California has (for now) more people than Florida. It doesn’t matter if 55% or 99% of Californians vote Democrat, the state only get so many electors. A national poll that includes California will drive up Biden’s numbers.
But again, the national numbers are irrelevant. Ask president Hillary Clinton. She drove up numbers in California and New York – and got a bigger share of the popular vote. Didn’t matter, because as a representative republic, we use the electoral college. Trump won the electoral college in a landslide.
So… why does our media insist on telling us the national poll numbers when they know it doesn’t matter?
I was at a presentation where an economist asked:
Can a bank earning 2% on its loans and paying 5% on its deposits stay in business?
Almost everyone in the room – bank examiners – said no.
$1,000 x 5% = $50
$10,000 x 2% = $200
So, a bank can pay 5% and earn 2% and put lots of profits on the bottom line.
Here’s what’s going to happen in November.
I know a LOT of democrats. I don’t know very many Democrats who are excited about voting for Biden. I live in an area of Florida that went for Hillary last time and had a zillion Obama signs in yards when he was running for president. I’m not seeing Biden signs. I see plenty of Trump signs and I’ve heard reporters candidly admit as they drive across Pennsylvania in the last election, once they got out of Philadelphia, all they saw was Trump signs.
Now, if 150 Democrats and 100 Republicans live in one area and get polled, the presidential race might look even because the pollsters will stop counting once they get 100 of each so it’s fair. Or Maybe Biden even would have a nice lead. Look familiar? But here’s the thing.
If only 50% of those Democrats go vote (75) because they aren’t enthusiastic, but 80% of the republicans vote because we tend to follow rules and show up (80) – that’s just how we are – then Trump wins. Again.
And he wins the same way he won last time.
The numbers will be different but you get the idea.
The media will scream “How could this be?” Maybe they can’t do math.
But now you know.
Two more things that amplify this.
A candidate for office recently interviewed 5 polling firms and specifically asked what they had changed since 2016 in their polling systems. Only 1 firm had changed anything. Well, the polls were off last time, so they’ll be off this time because they’re doing it the same wrong way.
Republicans aren’t real vocal about voting for Trump. Some are, but most aren’t. I feel if I wore a Trump t-shirt out in public, people would yell at me. Most of my democrat friends don’t feel that way. They post a lot on social media about the issues; my republican friends mostly don’t. Many, many democrats are vocal about the issues that appeal to the left, to the point where their activists are going too far but because they’re on the same team, the rational democrats can’t call the wild ones out. Look what happens in the news if a democrat woman is against abortion. Or if she is pro school choice. She’s shunned – or accosted. So the democrat dissenters stay quiet. Don’t believe me? When Ken Bone said he was going to vote independent, he later tweeted that the right wing was generally disappointed but understanding, and the left wing was filled with hatred.
So, what’s my point?
Trump is going to win – again – and the news media is going to be surprised – again – even though they shouldn’t be based on information that is readily available to all of us.
When I drive around, I see what I see. I wasn’t happy seeing all those Obama signs a few years ago, and I’m wondering where the Biden signs are now. But then I realized I had my answer.
One more thing. We NEED each other, gang. Rs and Ds can be friends. Rs and Ds ARE friends. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
10 thoughts on “The Scandal of National Polls.”
Looking from the outside at the violence and divisions in the USA right now I can’t help hoping you are wrong. Neither the USA nor the planet needs another four years of narcissistic dictatorship.
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That started before Trump, my friend. Ferguson was under Obama.
You are a very brave person for posting the truth.
If a person looks at Trump’s record of cutting taxes and trying to keep our nation a representative republic, and looks at the people he listens to (the ones he feels are the most competent regardless of the hue of human or his/her faith), they will see a human as flawed as the rest of us, but one who has the skills needed to put our country back on track again.
When you look at a map of the states who voted for Trump, you’re seeing most of the country. Generally, it is the coastal states with very large cities who vote democrat. The electoral college was put into place so that (for example) people living in California couldn’t erase the wishes of people living in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana. We are, after all, THESE United states.
Our forebearers gave us the keys to the door of self-government. What conservatives see happening is that people are throwing away the keys for the illusion of safety. It’s the age old story of the dog with a bone who is looking at his reflection in the water. You know the rest of the story.
I used to watch George Bush and George W Bush get absolutely pummeled in the press and wonder why they didn’t fight back. The media like a candidate who buddies up to them, like President McCain did – but oops, he didn’t get elected, did he? Romney didn’t fight back. Fighting back means the other side has to ramp up to maintain their position. It’s ugly for BOTH sides to do that, but who’s side is doing the burning of stuff? We the people don’t go for that.
Meanwhile, I’m very comfortable sitting with friends from any political side and having a calm discussion – and staying friends afterward. It’s not that hard. I liked them before, and I like them after. I don’t make political party a condition of friendship.
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Unless I’m fire burning mad about an obvious lie (such as Trump being a “white supremacist.” I mention there are 26 republican people of color presently running for office now, and the number of others who are voting from Trump based on his record and not his party) I like having discussions with friends who have different party affiliations. It’s the friends of friends who go on FB and call me unrepeatable names without giving any substance to their argument.
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I’m waffling back and forth about whether to comment because my instinct has always been to avoid confrontation… but that was pre-pandemic Anne Marie. The most profound change I’ve seen in myself these 7 months is that I speak up more…and that’s not the easiest path but it is growth
I sincerely hope that Trump does not win again due to voter apathy. Biden doesn’t light me on fire either, but the current administration’s handling of Covid has been abysmal. The cherry on top is the president holding a fundraiser when he knew he was exposed and, in my opinion, knew he was positive. I live in Bedminster. I’m not a millionaire and most people in this town aren’t crazy wealthy. The staff that work at his golf course were all exposed. It was absolutely reckless and borderline criminal.
I remember when friends, family and colleagues could have discussions and debates without spewing hate. 😞 Where is that America today?
Still friends with everyone here! 🙋🏻♀️
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I wonder what you think of polls taken outside the USA which provide an insight into how the rest of the world views your country? https://jilldennison.com/2020/10/09/americas-wake-up-call-how-the-world-sees-us/
Why would I care what people think who don’t live here when they are only showing a very limited amount of information and almost all of it is biased?
I’ve been to a dozen other countries and I’ve seen how our country is portrayed there. It’s not exactly accurate.
I totally agree with your post. Very insightful, yet hardcore truth.
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