I know you don’t come here for politics but this isn’t necessarily political.
The news people know this, or should, but we don’t have national elections for president. We have 50 individual state elections, and each state gets to decide their rules for it. So why do they take national polls? It’s irrelevant.
California has (for now) more people than Florida. It doesn’t matter if 55% or 99% of Californians vote Democrat, the state only get so many electors. A national poll that includes California will drive up Biden’s numbers.
But again, the national numbers are irrelevant. Ask president Hillary Clinton. She drove up numbers in California and New York – and got a bigger share of the popular vote. Didn’t matter, because as a representative republic, we use the electoral college. Trump won the electoral college in a landslide.
So… why does our media insist on telling us the national poll numbers when they know it doesn’t matter?
I was at a presentation where an economist asked:
Can a bank earning 2% on its loans and paying 5% on its deposits stay in business?
Almost everyone in the room – bank examiners – said no.
$1,000 x 5% = $50
$10,000 x 2% = $200
So, a bank can pay 5% and earn 2% and put lots of profits on the bottom line.
Here’s what’s going to happen in November.
I know a LOT of democrats. I don’t know very many Democrats who are excited about voting for Biden. I live in an area of Florida that went for Hillary last time and had a zillion Obama signs in yards when he was running for president. I’m not seeing Biden signs. I see plenty of Trump signs and I’ve heard reporters candidly admit as they drive across Pennsylvania in the last election, once they got out of Philadelphia, all they saw was Trump signs.
Now, if 150 Democrats and 100 Republicans live in one area and get polled, the presidential race might look even because the pollsters will stop counting once they get 100 of each so it’s fair. Or Maybe Biden even would have a nice lead. Look familiar? But here’s the thing.
If only 50% of those Democrats go vote (75) because they aren’t enthusiastic, but 80% of the republicans vote because we tend to follow rules and show up (80) – that’s just how we are – then Trump wins. Again.
And he wins the same way he won last time.
The numbers will be different but you get the idea.
The media will scream “How could this be?” Maybe they can’t do math.
But now you know.
Two more things that amplify this.
A candidate for office recently interviewed 5 polling firms and specifically asked what they had changed since 2016 in their polling systems. Only 1 firm had changed anything. Well, the polls were off last time, so they’ll be off this time because they’re doing it the same wrong way.
Republicans aren’t real vocal about voting for Trump. Some are, but most aren’t. I feel if I wore a Trump t-shirt out in public, people would yell at me. Most of my democrat friends don’t feel that way. They post a lot on social media about the issues; my republican friends mostly don’t. Many, many democrats are vocal about the issues that appeal to the left, to the point where their activists are going too far but because they’re on the same team, the rational democrats can’t call the wild ones out. Look what happens in the news if a democrat woman is against abortion. Or if she is pro school choice. She’s shunned – or accosted. So the democrat dissenters stay quiet. Don’t believe me? When Ken Bone said he was going to vote independent, he later tweeted that the right wing was generally disappointed but understanding, and the left wing was filled with hatred.
So, what’s my point?
Trump is going to win – again – and the news media is going to be surprised – again – even though they shouldn’t be based on information that is readily available to all of us.
When I drive around, I see what I see. I wasn’t happy seeing all those Obama signs a few years ago, and I’m wondering where the Biden signs are now. But then I realized I had my answer.
One more thing. We NEED each other, gang. Rs and Ds can be friends. Rs and Ds ARE friends. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.